So much of it is luck

July 8, 2008

If you look at Denis Menchov and the stuff written about him before this year’s Tour de France, you would think he’d be in the catbird seat for a podium finish.

Well, we’re three stages into the 2008 event and Menchov has hit a bump in the road that has put him pretty far back in the overall standings.

Think about it. Had Menchov not been caught up in a crash in yesterday’s stage 3, he’d be right up front with Valverde and Evans and the other big names that are less than two minutes behind the leader.

What’s going to happen in today’s time trial is a likely fall from the front by Romain Feillu of France. Even with his 1:45 lead, I’m guessing that Valverde, Hincapie and even Menchov will leap over this little Frenchman.

After looking at the stats, Menchov is at 2:30 to the leader which means he’s at :45 to Valverde and that’s going to be tough to make up. Even though we’re only a few stages in.

Well, I’m about to watch today’s time trial stage and will be back after I find out what happens.

*By the way, cycling is on the minds of people everywhere. I wrote about it on my regular blog and Bella English wrote about it in the Boston Globe this past weekend.